We miss the evidences
The Black Swan World of Talib is the new reality.
Let me explain. 'Black Swan' is an unpredictable event with hidden potential to unleash severe paradigm redefining consequences. Such events are as rare as sighting a black-swan (the world believed Swans were only white)
3 Characteristics of 'Black Swan' events:
a. Remote chance of its occurence
b. Paradigm redefining impact upon its occurence
c. The widespread insistence in hind-sight that the occurence of that event was but obvious !
The Qunitessential Question...why do leaders miss out on identifying these obvious high-impact events early in time ???
Most of us as leaders are trained to observe big Paretto trends. We miss the small, not obvious or momentarily not critical items not realising that they may have potential to cause high impact. Our response -
" lets think about it later !"
When such ignored events silently grow to full potential they unleash their havoc. Firstly, it shocks. Thereafter realisation. The mind then builds a bridge of cognitive logic to explain. Thus the widespread feeling that occurence of that event was but obvious.
Seen Hitchcock thrillers? The audience focuses on the obvious but is surprised in the end to realise that the small evidences they missed held the key.